Tropical Storm Sally -- Here We Go Again With The Pathetic Fearmongering Forecasting -- I Hope They Learn (Updated Daily)

  

Editorial By: Leonard Lenny Vasbinder

September 12, 2020

==============================

Thanks for reading my blog and following my blog and Youtube Channels. Please consider using my Amazon Store link for your Amazon shopping. I earn a very small commission from Amazon and it doesn't cost you anything extra. https://amzn.to/3cYkMcU

==============================

I'm already hearing from friends who are being scared that the storm is coming to New Orleans or even Baton Rouge.  I guess they watch their local news where the forecasters are already trying to scare the crap out of people in Louisiana. The weather people do this to fearmonger the hell out of any storms within five days or more, just to keep people watching the TV for advertising revenue purposes.

The spaghetti models have it going all over the place with only one out of 10 models coming towards New Orleans and eight heading towards the MS/AL/FL Gulf Coast and one meandering off west.

(Above image from - https://www.fox13news.com/news/tropical-storm-sally-forms-off-florida-coast)

The three-to-four day forecast, according to the Weather Underground website, which is usually the same as the National Hurricane Center (see below), shows it heading towards the MS Gulf Coast.

2020-0913-0800 UPDATE --

It looks like they were wrong at 5pm last night as the new forecast has the storm strengthening to a Cat-2 hurricane and making landfall about 100 miles further west, in Louisiana, with the track coming right over New Orleans.  Will it continue to move further west?

2020-0913-1800 UPDATE - 

According to the 10-day forecast from Weather Underground, the eye of TS Sally will be crossing over Harvey, LA at 2pm on Tuesday. The wind speed goes from 40 mph to almost zero and then back up to 40mph according to this snip. See near the bottom of the below image. The wind direction also goes from one direction to the other direction as the eye crosses.

2020-0914 1300 (1 p.m.) UPDATE -- WTF???

The forecasters were wrong again with their last update and now it's heading even further east but WTF is that discombobulation of nonsense in the middle of the map???

I think that is their way of saying, "We don't really know where the F this is going!"

2020-0914 2200 (10 p.m.) UPDATE -- 

Well, the forecasters are either wrong now or they've been wrong the past couple of days???

The track is now heading into the Alabama (AL) Gulf Coast -- after they've been saying it was heading to the MS Gulf Coast, then New Orleans, and now more than 100 miles east of New Orleans.

I hope the local news and weather stations eventually start giving the facts instead of doing their typical fearmongering with the forecast but until they do, I'll continue to write my thoughts on them.

Just How Bad Are The 5-Day Hurricane Forecasts? (to be updated daily)

By: Leonard Lenny Vasbinder, with some editorial commentary

August 21, 2020

Updated August 22, 2020

Updated again on August 22, 2020, at 8 p.m.

Updated August 23, 2020, at 8 p.m.

Updated August 24, 2020, at 8 p.m.

==============================

Thanks for reading my blog and following my blog and Youtube Channels. Please consider using my Amazon Store link for your Amazon shopping. I earn a very small commission from Amazon and it doesn't cost you anything extra. https://amzn.to/3cYkMcU

==============================

I've written many times over the years -- basically since Hurricane Katrina back in 2005 -- that the 5-day forecasts are almost always wrong (around 95% wrong).  The best place to go, based on the 5-day forecast, is to go to the place where they say it is going -- because it is NOT going there. :P

Here is yesterday's 5-day forecast for TD13 (now upgraded to TS Laura) which had it close to the Florida west coast and heading towards the Pensacola-Destin area.  The next image is today's 5-day forecast for TS Laura which has it heading directly for New Orleans -- around 100 miles further west.

As of now, the best place to go is New Orleans -- well, except for the fact that New Orleans storm drainage SUCKS BIG-TIME and the streets flood when it barely sprinkles here. :P 

I know -- I live here.  

While these images are from my favorite weather website, Weather Underground, this is not to disparage them since they are merely putting up the images done by the national weather and hurricane center forecasters.

After just two days, or technically a day and a half from the first 5-day forecast on August 20, 2020, at 8 p.m., the latest 5-day forecast on August 22, 2020, at 11 a.m. shows TS Laura heading about 100 miles west of New Orleans, LA, even west of Morgan City, LA.  Two days ago, the 5-day forecast had the storm skirting the west coast of Florida and hitting the Florida panhandle between Pensacola and Destin.

Update - August 22, 2020, 8 p.m. -- 

You really can't make this up.  

For the past two days, I've been mainly writing about TD13-TS Laura because TD14-TS Marco was heading west of Houston and TS Laura was heading more towards New Orleans but even west of New Orleans as of earlier today.

As of the 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. updates, NOW BOTH storms are heading directly to New Orleans.  

Now, TS Marco is forecast to hit New Orleans on Monday, August 24, 2020, late p.m. and TS Laura is forecast to hit New Orleans on Wednesday, August 26, 2020, late p.m.

The forecasters should really be embarrassed about just how bad they have mucked these forecasts up!

Here is TS Marco's path as of 10 a.m. on August 22, 2020.  The next image is TS Marco's path as of 7 p.m. on August 22, 2020.

Well, the good news for New Orleans is the forecasters and politicians were horribly wrong no matter how hard they fearmongered to the television audience.

From 8 p.m. on August 22, 2020, until now, you can see that TS Laura has moved a couple hundred more miles to the west. Instead of the above forecasted direct hit on New Orleans, TS Laura is now forecast to make landfall near the LA-TX border -- but it's still three days away so who knows how many more forecast changes will happen.

As far as TS Marco, while the politicians and weather news wanted it to also hit New Orleans -- makes for better ratings and a reason for pols to spend money -- TS Marco is heading further away from New Orleans also.

Update - August 24, 2020, 8 p.m. 

Well, TS Marco was a complete DUD!  At least as far as New Orleans and the LA Gulf Coast are concerned.  The FL panhandle did get a lot of rain and thunderstorms but there hasn't been hardly any rain in New Orleans today and not much wind either -- well, except for the wind from the blowhard politicians!  While Walmart and most other businesses remained open, the local governments shut down!  Why?  Because they still get paid whether they are open or self-shutdown.

Here is the August 24, 2020, 6 p.m. track for TS Marco.  It supposedly made "landfall" at the mouth of the Mississippi River as a tropical storm and is dying quickly but they forecasters are still trying to squeeze in one last gasp of fearmongering by having the Tropical Depression (winds less than 39 mph) head up towards the NOLA metro area.

TS Laura is supposed to turn into a Cat-1 hurricane by August 26, 2020, and then turn into a Cat-2 hurricane before making landfall on August 27, 2020, early a.m.  

We'll see!

I'll continue to update for the next couple of days but my closing below will likely stay the same.

In closing, you can see just how inaccurate even a 5-day forecast is, yet these same so-called experts and liberal-democrat politicians keep trying to predict the weather for decades and centuries from now -- and they'll likely be wrong about those predictions as well.

America's Frontline Doctors Video Deleted By Facebook, Twitter, And Youtube

==============================

Thanks for reading my blog and following my blog and Youtube Channels. Please consider using my Amazon Store link for your Amazon shopping. I earn a very small commission from Amazon and it doesn't cost you anything extra. https://amzn.to/3cYkMcU

==============================

Since this video is being scrubbed from social media platforms like Facebook, Twitter, and Youtube, I figured I would download it and post it here on my blog.  I will be writing an accompanying news article but wanted to get the video up so people could share the link to this blog post as a way of sharing the video on social media.

I downloaded the full-size video (almost 500MB) but it was too big of a file to upload to this blog post so I tried a couple of websites like VideoSmaller.com, to reduce it to "720 width." but the website said the starting video was too large also. Fortunately, even after many weeks, the video is saved here -- 

https://lbry.tv/@Archives:a/DoctorsForHCQ:4

SNIP - American Frontline Doctors speak in front of the Supreme Court on the benefits of Hydroxychloriquine. After over 1 million views, Facebook censored this video. These are mainstream doctors speaking in front of the U.S. capital on the benefits of Hydroxychloriquine.

Since this video was posted here, Twitter has SUSPENDED the account of THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES for sharing the video! - END SNIP

Here's a LIVE UPDATING page on studies around the world. You can watch it update in real time!
https://c19study.com/

See Dr. Ericson's first banned video here. He was one of the doctors in this video on the SCOTUS steps:

https://open.lbry.com/@CSharpner:4/DoctorsBannedFromYouTube:9?r=3YKAHMVkU9RgZJRaQvYqPUnPTb6fHGp5

#Coronapocalypse Daily Thread, July 1, 2020

By: Leonard Lenny Vasbinder

#Coronapocalypse Daily Thread, July 1, 2020

=============================

Thanks for reading my blog and following my blog and Youtube Channels. Please consider using my Amazon Store link for your Amazon shopping. I earn a very small commission from Amazon and it doesn't cost you anything extra. https://amzn.to/3cYkMcU

=============================

There are many reports of a spike in "cases" of Covid-19, especially among people under 35, a group that has been relatively unscathed by Covid-19 thus far.

Of course, the lefties in the LSM are reporting that this increase in "cases" is due to states that re-opened and the younger crowds gathering at bars, etc -- but failing to mention the hundreds of thousands of protesters involved in #Protestapocalypse, most of whom are under 35.

So far, from the data that I've looked at on the CDC website and a couple other sources, there is no significant increase that does not follow the increased testing. Obviously, with the more tests being done, there will be more cases but the daily cases and death rate continues to be much lower than the peak back in mid-April.

IMAGE #1 shows the daily testing number that continues to climb from 150K a day in mid-April to over 400K a day now, yet there are far fewer proportional cases.

IMAGE #2 shows that even with the much higher rate of daily testing, the daily cases have fallen dramatically from the peak back in mid-April and the new daily cases are relatively flat, notwithstanding the dramatically increased number of daily tests.

IMAGE #3 shows the daily death rate of around 600 deaths a day, down from the mid-April peak of nearly 2,300 daily deaths. While a zero death rate would be preferred, it is a fact that on any given day in America, over 7,600 people die -- nearly 13 times as many -- just to put the 600 Covid-19 daily deaths into perspective.

For all of America, the below numbers that I reported a few days ago are still the same.

Less than 10% of people tested show as positive -- that includes all the people with symptoms and the tens of millions being tested with zero symptoms -- so 90% are NOT testing positive.

Just because people test positive for Covid-19 does NOT mean they are getting sick. Over 80% of positive cases are very mild to completely asymptomatic. Around 15% have mild to moderate symptoms. Less than 5% are hospitalized.

The average age of deaths is 72 (74 for LA). 92% of deaths are people over 55 and 85% are over 65. Upwards of 60% were people in nursing homes, senior care facilities, and hospitals, with preexisting health issues. Only 8% of deaths for people under 55.

The overwhelming majority of people without health issues have had extremely low numbers of even testing positive or getting sick.

The death rate is barely 5% of the original projection of 2.2 million. This means the so-called experts were WRONG by 95%!

In other words, it has been severely overhyped, overblown, and fearmongered -- and it's pathetic how so many otherwise intelligent people are acting like complete dumbasses over this.

I almost forgot -- 2.8 million people die every year in the U.S. That's 7,671 deaths a day without Covid-19. Covid-19 may actually lower the death rate this year, especially in the under 65 age brackets.